Nottingham Forest’s barnstorming start to the season hit a snag before the November international break, with Newcastle United winning 3-1 at the City Ground.
Even so, Nuno Espirito Santo has done a first-class job at the helm this season, taking the positivity from last year and willing it into something capable of rocking the boat at the uppermost level of the Premier League.
Of course, it doesn’t hurt that the Tricky Trees have some of the most talented up-and-coming players in the country. Morgan Gibbs-White is one, and he reinforced his rising pedigree with a fine performance for England on Thursday evening.
Morgan Gibbs-White keeps getting better
Gibbs-White joined Forest from Wolverhampton Wanderers in a deal worth £42.5m in 2022. It was a move met with scepticism by many Premier League viewers, but his continual growth has run alongside his outfit’s progress, now established as a real competitor in the top flight.
Matches (starts)
37 (36)
37 (35)
8 (8)
Goals
5
5
1
Assists
8
10
0
Pass completion
70%
77%
77%
Big chances created
9
16
2
Key passes*
1.9
2.0
1.8
Ball recoveries*
4.4
5.1
4.1
Dribbles completed*
1.4
1.2
1.3
Tackles + interceptions*
1.2
1.5
2.1
Total duels won*
4.5
5.3
5.5
As you can see from the table above, he’s maintained an impressive level of performance across his three campaigns with the club, duly rewarded with a Three Lions call-up, making his debut as a substitute against the Republic of Ireland in September and featuring again this week.
It was Gibbs-White’s smart broadside-swung ball that allowed Curtis Jones to deftly backheel into the net against Greece, sealing a 3-0 victory in Lee Carsley’s penultimate game at the helm.
Gibbs-White is a real star, one of Forest’s finest. However impressive the outfit may be right now, it can’t be helped but look back at Brennan Johnson, and imagine the havoc that could be wreaked with him in the side. Alas, the homegrown star was sold to Tottenham Hotspur over a year ago.
Why Forest sold Brennan Johnson
Johnson did enjoy a season of Premier League football with Forest, scoring eight goals and supplying three assists across 38 matches as his boyhood club avoided an instantaneous return to the second tier by the skin of their teeth.
Settled in the big time, the decorated English outfit won’t have wanted to part with their burgeoning talisman but £47.5m is no small sum, and that is indeed what Spurs offered to take him into Ange Postecoglou’s brood.
It didn’t prove to be detrimental, even if the 2023/24 term was one of peril for Forest, who dismissed Steve Cooper – the man that authorised Johnson’s departure – and replaced him with Nuno, which is, in hindsight, proving to have been a brilliant switch.
Largely, the electric-paced winger’s exit was mitigated by the signings of Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi, signed for a combined £18.5m fee, less than half of Johnson’s high price tag.
Such heavy expenditure on Forest’s part demanded such a sale, and indeed, it’s paid off, even if the top-flight club was hit with a points deduction last season – thankfully, it didn’t result in a tail-spin into the Championship.
While the spinning wheel of events all make sense, slot into their parts, the loss of Johnson still stings some, and it’s a rueful thing to imagine a world where he still plies his craft at the City Ground.
Brennan Johnson's season in numbers
Johnson’s lack of potency seemed to hand detractors the most sturdy of grist to support their claim that Johnson was over-priced and underwhelming as a forward option for a top team like Tottenham.
How wrong they were. The 23-year-old has been one of the most clinical players in English football this season, finding his feet down N17 and hailed for his “incredible run of form” earlier this year by talent scout Jacek Kulig after the Welshman scored in six successive matches for Spurs and notched for his country too. Gibbs-White, for instance, has scored just once this season.
Saying all this, it doesn’t really matter for Forest, who collected a handsome sum for their prospect’s departure and have since gone from strength to strength in the Premier League.
It’s never too late to suffer a dramatic nosedive, but it’s a fair argument that Forest, who have 19 points from 11 fixtures, are probably going to surpass their points totals from the previous two campaigns (38 points and 32 points).
As per FBref, Johnson also ranks among the top 13% of attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues over the past year for assists and the top 8% for touches in the attacking penalty area per 90, highlighting his creative spark and the success that can be found from barrelling into the danger area with those rapid wheels of his.
One can only imagine the kind of capering that he could commit with Gibbs-White this season, dancing through defences and latching onto the England international’s ball-playing – returning the favour by teeing him up when in space too.
It’s a formula already tried and tested in Nottingham, but one that would be so much more refined and offensively reliable, were it in action today.
Market Movers
Football FanCast's Market Movers series explores the changing landscape of the modern transfer market. How much is your club's star player or biggest flop worth today?
Gibbs-White’s a big talent alright, but Johnson’s simply better, and there’s no shame in that. According to CIES Football Observatory’s player-valuing model, the Welshman’s natural skills and ever-improving application have actually seen his market value balloon from that already hefty figure that the Lilywhites paid.
Indeed, the research group reveal that Johnson’s price would draw in at about £69m, were he to be appraised by a hungry suitor in 2025. Forest could have collected a far greater figure for this mercurial winger, to be sure, but given the way things have panned out, it’s hardly the end of the world.
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